Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news

In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more credible forecasts are associated with a larger reaction in the short window around the management forecasts and a smaller post-management forecast drift in returns, we show that the magnitude of the underreaction is smaller for firms that provide more credible forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by providing out-of-sample evidence of the drift in returns documented in the post-earnings-announcement drift literature, with the credibility of the news being one explanation for the phenomenon.     

Modeling asymmetric comovements of asset returns

Existing time-varying covariance models usually impose strongrestrictions on how past shocks affect the forecasted covariancematrix. In this article we compare the restrictions imposedby the four most popular multivariate GARCH models, and introducea set of robust conditional moment tests to detect misspecification.We demonstrate that the choice of a multivariate volatilitymodel can lead to substantially different conclusions in anyapplication that involves forecasting dynamic covariance matrices(like estimating the optimal hedge ratio or deriving the riskminimizing portfolio). We therefore introduce a general modelwhich nests these four models and their natural 'asymmetric'extensions. The new model is applied to study the dynamic relationbetween large and small firm returns.     

Tourists’ intention to visit a country: The impact of cultural distance

Culture has long been recognized as a possible reason why people in different countries make different decisions, but research into its impact in tourism contexts has been limited. This study addressed this gap by examining the influence of cultural distance on tourists’ destination choices. Five cultural distance measures were examined. Of the five measures, perceived cultural distance and Clark and Pugh's index were found to be most strongly related to Australian tourists’ intentions to visit a variety of holiday destinations. The perceived cultural distance measure appeared to be a better predictor and offers some advantages to researchers as it allows respondents to include relevant cultural information in tourism research. However, as Clark and Pugh's method provided similar information, cultural differences can be inferred when it is not possible to survey tourists directly.     

Firm performance and mutual fund voting

We employ a new comprehensive proxy voting records database to investigate whether mutual funds consider prior firm performance when they vote on a diverse range of management- and shareholder-sponsored proposals relating to governance, compensation, and director election. We argue that prior firm performance plays a role in the monitoring effort of mutual funds as they fulfill their fiduciary duties. Results show that voting is related to prior firm performance for selected management and shareholder proposals and that it is consistent with Institutional Shareholder Services’ recommendations. Mutual funds support management (shareholder) proposals less (more) when prior firm performance has been weak. Furthermore, even when mutual funds deviate from their fund family’s voting policies, they attach importance to prior firm performance, and their voting is, to a certain degree, affected by business ties.     

Economic Restructuring and HRM in Hong Kong

This article discusses the human resource implications of' business readjustment and advances in Hong Kong as its economy is restructured into a post-industrial centre of tertiary service industries. Corporate reforms are benchmarked against Western practices of exploring flexibilities and competitiveness which emphasize labour performance and cost savings. However, job security does not appear to have been eroded, possibly betraying an Oriental importance placed upon trust and commitment between employer and employee. As a meeting-place where Eastern and Western cultural practices interface, Hong Kong probably remains economically resilient by keeping its normative and institutional permissiveness in a hybrid mix of Western and Oriental practices.     

Utility of gambling II: risk,paradoxes, and data

We specialize our results on entropy-modified representations of event-based gambles to representations of probability-based gambles by assuming an implicit event structure underlying the probabilities, and adding assumptions linking the qualitative properties of the former and the latter. Under segregation and under duplex decomposition, we obtain numerical representations consisting of a linear weighted utility term plus a term corresponding to information-theoretical entropies. These representations accommodate the Allais paradox and most of the data due to Birnbaum and associates. A representation of mixed event-and probability-based gambles accommodates the Ellsberg paradox. We suggest possible extensions to handle the data not accommodated.      

Experiences of high-growth technology firms in Malaysia and New Zealand

How do technology firms experience high growth and the support available from governments? This qualitative study explores the experiences of high-growth technology-based firms in Malaysia and New Zealand. Case studies were developed for eight high-growth companies in the information and communication technology sectors of each country. The countries differ in national cultures and the forms of government support. There were no marked country differences in growth drivers. Growth was driven by innovation and flexibility within business-to-business sales relationships. These firms faced four obstacles: intense competition; liabilities of smallness; limited human capital; and funding ability. Malaysia offers broader mainstream support with favourable tax treatment of R&;D related expenditure. In contrast, New Zealand’s has been criticised for a highly targeted approach, although this is now broadening. Both countries appear to be converging on a hybrid approach combining mainstream and targeted support for growth businesses.     

Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models

This paper extends probit recession forecasting models by incorporating various recession risk factors and using the advanced dynamic probit modeling approaches. The proposed risk factors include financial market expectations of a gloomy economic outlook, credit or liquidity risks in the general economy, the risks of negative wealth effects resulting from the bursting of asset price bubbles, and signs of deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals. The model specifications include three different dynamic probit models and the standard static model. The out-of-sample analysis suggests that the four probit models with the proposed risk factors can generate more accurate forecasts for the duration of recessions than the conventional static models with only yield spread and equity price index as the predictors. Among the four probit models, the dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models outperform the static and autoregressive models in terms of predicting the recession duration. With respect to forecasting the business cycle turning points, the static probit model is as good as the dynamic probit models by being able to flag an early warning signal of a recession.     

Organizing and personalizing intelligence gathering from the web

In this paper, we describe how an integrated web‐based application, code‐named FOCI (F lexible O rganizer for C ompetitive I ntelligence), can help the knowledge worker in the gathering, organizing, tracking and dissemination of competitive intelligence (CI). It combines the use of a novel user‐configurable clustering, trend analysis and visualization techniques to manage information gathered from the web. FOCI allows its users to define and personalize the organization of the information clusters according to their needs and preferences into portfolios. These personalized portfolios created are saved and can be subsequently tracked and shared with other users. The paper runs through an example to show how the use of a predefined domain template coupled with personalization can greatly enhance an organization and tracking of CI gathered from the web. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.